Nate Silver is a box score genius. Nate Silver can call states, counties and wards like no other. But can Nate predict the winner of the World Cup?
Some of our global readers may find Nate Silver’s statistical offerings on “soccer” other worldly. Who is this four eyed American running the numbers on our game, I hear some of you dismissively spit. But can it be true one can only understand football if one starts drinking about eleven in the morning in a backstreet pub or bar in the vicinity of some corrugated contraption called a football ground. There has to be a middle ground. Nate Silver deserves the utmost respect. But you know among the remnants of ale, chips, pies and gravy that your guts can tell you something Nate’s numbers cannot.
Nate has promised to delve into football realm for some time. His arrival is most welcome. FIFA has improved its ranking system. FIFA’s seeds were the deserving form teams (though Silver has a minor objection preferring Portugal over Italy.) Still, Silver’s Soccer Power Index is the Snow Leopard of upgrades. It is on paper at least, the best ranking of international football.
But can the running of fun football statistics really predict winners with such scientific certitude. How can it, for example, adjust for the emergence of a Uruguayan midfield prodigy, the determination African Disapora players from random places like Honduras to perform at that higher level, or the late call up of that left back capable of both the beautiful football and the most horrendous crimes ever witnessed on a football field, where one No.3’s mis-kick can find the back of the net or break Beckham’s leg in three places, not to mention all the other shenanigans?
As noted here yesterday, random lady luck has smiled on Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay. Each has a one in three chance of being grouped with South Africa, arguably the weakest host in the tournament’s history, though Switzerland, Spain and the USA have good cases for not being up to scratch when it was their turn.
Silver’s Theirry Henry is luck. Such luck will continue through today’s draw. Three nations will draw New Zealand. Then from that starting point Nate will run his regressions and look for his normal distributions and soon enough he will predict game and group winners and the ultimate winners of the World Cup. You would be wise to follow his word at the wide wonderful world of online turf accountants and soccer spreaders.
But a word of caution. If Nate nurtures the idea solely based on the numbers that England’s dream draw would include Algeria and Slovakia, then my guts filled with lashings of lham lhalou and lager humbly suggest he expand his data set.
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